As we reach the midpoint of Strategy 2030, we are entering a new humanitarian era. A complex mass of emerging trends is changing the world around us and affecting our ability to act: from social and geo-political polarisation to protracted conflicts that threaten to expand; emerging challenges to the protection offered by the Fundamental Principles, to new drivers of displacement and migration tensions; through to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons and many more overlapping, accelerating shifts.   

The IFRC Solferino Academy has consulted more than 4,000 people in 154 countries as part of an ongoing conversation about the network’s progress on Strategy 2030 and priorities for the future. These voices – from National Society volunteers, staff and leaders around the world as well as some external experts – bring different perspectives to the fore and insights for what we should prioritise in the coming years.  The below is one of the key emerging findings of this process thus far.

Navigating complex crises

“We are too often still operating from fixed mindsets and with fixed responses rather than recognising the interconnected nature of issues we are facing” – Staff interview, Strategy 2030 consultation.

Crises and emergencies have never been simple or straightforward, but there were established patterns and well-understood impacts and responses. Humanitarian services – and the institutions which deliver them – were designed to meet these challenges.  But today, in a hyper-connected world facing common global threats as well as locally nuanced vulnerabilities, the consultations have highlighted a deep-rooted concern that existing response models are unfit and are being stressed to breaking point as the triggers, impacts and effects of converging crises change, particularly in contexts of fragility.

Current state

Respondents once again prioritised climate issues as the most pressing global challenge overall, consistent with the original assessment of Strategy 2030. They continued to see health, disasters, migration and issues of values, power and inclusion as a priority overall. The key development however, has been that they are more pointedly observing that humanitarian needs are driven by interconnected crises which disrupt all levels of society.

“Let’s be clear – there is no single crisis any more. Every crisis is actually a plural crisis. Vulnerability is so interconnected.” – National Society Lead, Asia.

In this volatile system, IFRC network respondents told us that the boundaries between one issue and another are increasingly blurred; climate change intensifies disasters caused by hazards such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, which, in turn, exacerbate resource scarcity, challenge water, health and food security, and force displacement or mass migrations^[1], for example. These environmental stresses can then ignite or worsen conflicts, destabilising regions and straining international peace efforts.

Simultaneously, economic pressures, including inflation, unemployment, and widening health and other social inequalities, are both compounding these crises while also being impacted by them.

This convergence of trends, which affect and exacerbate each other, is leading to constantly shifting outcomes which are often novel or hard to foresee. These new hazards disproportionately affect people who are already at risk.

Future priorities

“We must prioritise systemic changes that empower communities to withstand and recover from multiple shocks. Otherwise we will become irrelevant to the very thing – humanitarian vulnerability – that underpins our purpose.” – Strategy Lead, National Society

National Societies are at the forefront of responding to these multifaceted challenges[2]. To effectively navigate and mitigate the impact of these compounding systemic crises and a deeply uncertain future, National Societies are increasingly calling for a shift from traditional, siloed approaches to more integrated, holistic strategies and systemic change[3].

Systems thinking: Embracing systems thinking allows for a comprehensive understanding of how different drivers interact and increase humanitarian vulnerability. Systems thinking involves identifying the multiple root causes and potential ripple effects of crises, enabling more proactive and preventive measures. By mapping interdependencies and feedback loops, the network believes it can design interventions that address multiple aspects of a crisis simultaneously. Technology is an important enabler here, but community connections are also vital.

“I’ve worked on a lot of projects… but this was the first one that looked at the interconnectedness between the different areas. It was a new way of looking holistically at our society, looking at connections and how things branch out from one area into all the others.” – National Society Disaster Manager, Africa.

Systemic leadership: Leadership requires agility, innovation, and a commitment to collaboration, according to respondents. To deliver systemic change, leaders must encourage continuous learning and adaptability. This means developing policies and strategies that are flexible and responsive to uncertainty and a rapidly changing external environment, and that leverage diverse partners as players in a distributed network. Many respondents call for more space to look ‘up and out’ to engage with external issues, rather than ‘down and in’ at internal politics and processes, when shaping priorities and making decisions:

“Our ability to adapt and innovate in the face of complex crises of today is what will define our success as a global humanitarian network. Systems thinking and systemic leadership are not just strategies; they are imperatives for building resilience.” – National Society Leader, Europe.

System-wide partnerships: Navigating complex crises necessitates strong links between different sectors and communities. The consultation indicates that building multi-stakeholder partnerships with governments, NGOs, private sector entities, academia, and local communities is expected to improve resource sharing, knowledge exchange, and coordinated action. Such partnerships also build organisational resilience by ‘making friends before they are needed’.

“Collaboration is our most powerful tool. It is only by partnering across sectors and borders, we can create comprehensive solutions that leave no one behind.” – National Society Lead, Asia

What success looks like by 2030

Participants continue to see the five global challenges as causing major humanitarian and developmental challenges but prescribe much more coordinated and systemic approaches to interrogate and tackle them, in acknowledgement of their connectedness and complexity.

1. Integrated response and resilience mechanisms: Integrated response mechanisms that coordinate efforts and share knowledge across different sectors and regions. These mechanisms will facilitate rapid, effective responses to crises.
2. Stronger collaborative networks: The foundation of strong, multi-stakeholder partnerships will be evident, with diverse actors working together towards common humanitarian goals.
3. Enhanced readiness: The network’s ability to identify, track and act on emerging risks and opportunities in anticipation will be significantly improved. The capacity for agility and to plan for constant and immediate strategic adaptation is essential.
4. Sustainable development outcomes: The humanitarian efforts of National Societies will contribute to broader sustainable development goals, including poverty reduction, improved health outcomes, and greater social equity.

“Building resilience is not an option; it is a necessity. It requires bold leadership, innovative thinking, and an unwavering commitment to collective action. If we do not step up to this, if we stay in our response silo – I cannot be more clear on this – it will be seen by future generations as an abdication of humanitarian principles” – Crisis Response Lead, National Society

^[1] Is climate change causing more extreme weather? | Zurich Insurance

^[2] ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/IFRC-Displacement-Climate-Report-2021_1.pdf

^[3] Radical changes are needed for transformations to a good Anthropocene | npj Urban Sustainability (nature.com)