An Unlanded Red Cross: 2050

The humanitarian landscape is defined by geography. The Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, operates within the framework of nation-states, with National Societies aligned to sovereign territories and their governments. Their mission – to provide relief, protection, and support to those in need – is executed through a system that assumes the existence of recognisable borders and defined territory. But as we look ahead to a future where the very notion of territory is eroded by climate change, digitalisation, and even space colonisation, we should ask: how will humanitarian action evolve when land itself becomes an unstable concept?

There are no answers in the following, just questions, lots of questions. However, these questions, I believe, challenge us to think critically about how humanitarian organisations, and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement more specifically, will evolve and adapt to unprecedented, unexpected and perhaps unwanted changes in the way humans exist, and these are just as pertinent now as they will be in 2050.

The Vanishing Nation: Climate Change and the Disappearance of Sovereignty

Tuvalu is a Pacific island state and a nation dealing with the profound effects of climate change. Scientists predict that rising sea levels could submerge much of Tuvalu’s land, including its capital, Funafuti, by 2050. In response, the government is pioneering the concept of becoming the world’s first ‘digital nation’, a nation state existing without physical land. In this radical new definition of sovereignty (currently unrecognised by international norms), what role would the Tuvalu Red Cross play when the physical properties of their remit are no more?

If a nation can exist in cyberspace, can a humanitarian organisation tied to national structures serve it in the same way? What does humanitarian relief look like for a country that no longer has physical land, yet retains a national identity?

As we know, National Societies operate as auxiliaries to their respective national governments, providing support during crises, whether acute or more protracted. What happens then, when that government itself is no longer physically present? Will the Tuvalu Red Cross operate purely in a digital domain, providing psychosocial support, advocating for climate refugees, and ensuring access to aid from afar? More critically, if climate change forces entire populations into digital existence, what new forms of vulnerability might emerge; ones that do not yet fit into the conventional framework of humanitarian response?

The Challenge of Space Colonisation

The possibility of human settlements beyond Earth’s limits raises more radical questions about humanitarian action and the role of the Movement. Some experts predict that by 2050, Mars could have a population of 1 million human settlers. Though this seems unlikely now, it is generally accepted that humans will establish some forms of permanent communities beyond Earth in the next three decades. If that’s so, what role, if any, would the Movement play in this off-Earth future?

How would humanitarian law apply in an extraterrestrial setting? Would an “Interplanetary Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies” emerge, providing relief in the wake of space-crises, celestial pandemics, or collapse of effective governance on Mars? Would the concept of humanitarian aid itself need to evolve in an environment where traditional resources, infrastructure, and societal norms don’t exist or are wildly different to those based on Earth?

Who or what would manage humanitarian aid in a community that exists beyond earthly legal systems? The Movement currently relies on international humanitarian law (IHL), which is itself intertwined with the sovereignty of nations. If a space colony operates under a corporate entity for example, rather than a nation-state, would it be bound by the same ethical obligations as Earth-based governments?

The Humanitarian Mission in an Uncertain Future

Of course, right now, these scenarios seem speculative, far-fetched, and to some, perhaps even down-right ridiculous, especially when we’ve got plenty of other challenges to be dealing with in the here-and-now. However, whether through the disappearance of physical nations due to climate change or the expansion of human settlements beyond Earth, the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement faces the possibility of needing to redefine its mission, again.

Adaptation isn’t new to the Movement. It has expanded its mandate from battlefield relief to the myriad offerings it provides today. Could it now evolve to serve communities that exist without physical location, without traditional governments, or even without planetary ties?

Would it be possible for humanitarian organisations to maintain their principles in digital or interplanetary contexts? How might their mission be shaped by new forms of crisis, such as cyber-disasters that disproportionately affect stateless digital populations or catastrophic failures of life-support systems in space colonies?

Rethinking Aid in a World Without Borders

If the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is to remain relevant in this version of the future, it should begin to consider these questions soon. The humanitarian principles that have been its guiding light for over 160 years may still have relevance and hold true, but their implementation may require radical rethinking.

In a plausible and not-too-distant future where nations may disappear, where societies may exist purely in digital realms, and where humanity may reach beyond Earth itself, one thing is likely: the humanitarian need, in one shape or another, will remain.

Plausible magazine article from 2050 to imagine the above future:

Humanitarian Review, June 2050 Issue

How the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement Stays Ahead in 2050

In 2050, the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is as relevant as ever – not despite the radical shifts in our world, but because of them. As crises evolve beyond borders – geographical, political, and planetary – the world’s oldest humanitarian network continues to prove its timeless adaptability.

Responding to Crisis on Mars

When a decompression accident at Martian Research Base A-17 left twenty-five scientists injured and eight stranded outside the station for over four hours in the sub-zero dust storm of Sol48, the Martian Red Cross’s Rapid Response Orbital Unit was already in motion.

Deployed from the Phobos Humanitarian Hub, the unit arrived within three hours, providing emergency pressurized shelters, trauma care, and remote psychological support. The incident marked the 7th interplanetary deployment by the Movement this year – a figure that barely raises eyebrows anymore in humanitarian circles.

“The protocols are standard now,” explains Liané Koulibaly, Director of Interplanetary Services for the IFRC. “Low-gravity triage. Bio-signal telemetry. We’ve started including culturally tailored care for crews identifying with the emerging Martian ethnicity. It’s just humanitarianism, extended.”

Digital Relief for a Digital Nation

Back on Earth – virtually speaking – the Tuvalu Red Cross continues to lead the charge in what it calls ‘cloud-based compassion’. Since the nation’s physical disappearance under rising sea levels in the 2030s, Tuvalu has functioned as a digital sovereign entity, with its citizens scattered across diasporic clusters from Aotearoa to Canada.

This year, the Tuvalu Red Cross rolled out its Emotional Continuity Programme, offering encrypted VR counselling spaces that recreate traditional atoll environments for displaced Tuvaluans. “It’s not just therapy – it’s about anchoring cultural identity,” says Programme Manager Telea Faleata, dialling in from a server base in Wellington.

They also deployed AI-led microgrant platforms last quarter to support remote community projects, such as teaching Tuvaluan in virtual classrooms and rebuilding digital archives of oral histories lost during the climate exodus.

The Future Is Familiar

For those who’ve been part of the Movement’s history, these developments are unsurprising. The Red Cross Red Crescent was delivering aid via drone swarms back in the late 2020s and coordinating pandemic response across digital systems during the 2032 H7N7 outbreak. Whether it’s Earthbound climate refugees or stranded astrobiologists, the Red Cross Red Crescent keeps doing what it’s always done – meeting humanity’s needs wherever they be.

As Koulibaly puts it, “Human need doesn’t stop at borders, or indeed atmospheres. So, neither do we.”